The economic activity of the euro zone continued to shrink and exacerbate the recession concerns


Zhitong Finance was informed that the steps of corporate activities in the euro zone slowed down last month,breaking news but the data still shows that the euro zone economy may shrink again this quarter, due to the dominant service industry, it is difficult to create demand.Data show that the final value of Markit comprehensive PMI in the euro zone was 47.6, and the expected and initial values were 47.1.In November, the Markit service industry PMI was 48.7, and the initial values and expectations were 48.2.


The euro zone economy has shrunk by 0.1%in the third quarter, and the November PMI data released on Tuesday shows that the euro zone economy may continue to shrink in the fourth quarter and fall into a technical recession.The euro zone Markit comprehensive PMI in November is the highest level since July, but it is still less than 50.Cyrus de La Rubia, chief economist of Burger Commercial Bank, said: "The service industry continued to decline in November. The moderate improvement of the economic activity index did not leave people with a lot of optimistic space for the recent rapid recovery.Five months of atrophy, further strengthening the dim prospective prospects. In the fourth quarter, GDP may decline. "


The index of measuring the new business (indicator of demand) for the fifth consecutive month is lower than 50, although the index is raised from 45.6 to 46.7.However, it has improved the overall emotions in the next year.Comprehensive future output index rose from 55.6 to 56.0.


Germany and French economic activities continue to shrink


On Tuesday's survey also showed that the largest economy in the euro area in Germany in November, the decline was lower than last month.The final value of Markit's comprehensive PMI in November of Germany was 47.8, the initial value and expectations were 47.1, which was still in the contraction range.In November, Germany's Markit service industry PMI final value was 49.6, and the initial values and expectations were 48.7.Cyrus de La Rubia pointed out that when the manufacturing industry was in a decline, the data of the German service industry played counter to the might of people's expectations.Although the service industry has shrunk slightly in November, it is obvious that there is no continuous spiral decline.On the contrary, most indicators show that the problem in the industry is beginning to ease.


However, the GDP of Hamburg Commercial Bank's GDP nearly shows that the economy will have negative growth in the fourth quarter.This means that Germany has fallen into a decline after recorded 0.1%in the third quarter.Cyrus de La Rubia said: "German service providers are still working hard to deal with the decline. In the November survey, the demand for new businesses has slowed down in both domestic or international."


The survey shows that the number of employment in German service industry has risen for the first time in three months, but the increase is not large.Due to high energy costs, market uncertainty, and weak overall economy, the industry continues to suppress the industry. The expectations of service providers have decreased slightly compared with the previous month, showing future challenges.  

At the same time, French economic activities in the second largest economy in the euro zone are still weak.French Markit's comprehensive PMI final value was 44.6, and the initial values and expectations were 44.5.At the same time, the service industry activities are still shrinking. France's November Markit service industry PMI final value is 45.4, and the initial value and expectations are 45.3.


Norman Liebke, an economist of Burger Commercial Bank, said French service companies are in trouble.Economic activities have declined for the sixth consecutive month, demand is still weak, and the price of investment products has risen rapidly again.This situation has prompted service companies to reduce the recruitment speed in November, and it is even more pessimistic about the expectations of the next 12 months.The prediction model assumes that the service industry will shrink slightly in the fourth quarter, and the atrophy of the private service industry may be relatively large.In addition, the pressure on employees is increasing.Data show that the manufacturing industry continued to lay off layoffs in November, and the recruitment speed of the service industry has been steadily declining for several months.


Recent interest rate cuts expected to rise


With the weakening of prices in Europe, the economic activities of the two largest economies in the euro zone have shrunk, and the region's economy is on the verge of decline, which has prompted investors to increase the betting on the European Central Bank in spring.The long -term interest rate of the European Central Bank's short -term euro reflects about 130 basis points at the end of next year, and about 90 basis points at the beginning of last week.The market also expects that the European Central Bank to start the probability of raising interest rates in March is about 75%, and about 40%a week ago.


Due to the decline in inflation and the slowdown in economic activities, the European Central Bank officials have recently released the pigeon signal.The European Central Bank Executive Committee Isabel Schnabel said that in view of the significant decline in inflation, the European Central Bank may not raise interest rates further, and decision makers should not guide interest rates to be stable before 2024.Isabel Schnabel's remarks marked his transformation to pigeons because she was regarded as one of the strongest eagle members in this European Central Bank's interest rate hike cycle.After experiencing the most aggressive interest rate hikes in the European Central Bank in history, the inflation rate of the euro area has dropped from 10%a year ago to 2.4%in November, closer to the target level of 2%of the European Central Bank.This also makes people doubt that policy makers may grow stubborn growth in the next two years.