The US labor market has shown signs of weakness!The economy is more likely to fall next year?




ThePopular information hot labor market has supported the unexpected strong economy this year, but the former now shows signs of cooling, which may indicate that the US economic growth may slow down in 2024.

The unemployment rate has risen slightly this year, the Americans have been looking for new jobs for a long time, and the growth of wages is slowing.The US Department of Labor will announce the new position vacant data on Tuesday. The Non -Agricultural Employment Report announced on Friday may provide more clues to prove whether the always -tight labor market has begun to loosen.

Decline in resignation rate

At present, the surge in resignation in the early recovery of the new crown epidemic has disappeared.Economist believes,The decline in resignation rate shows that workers are not so certain that they are not so certain that they are more satisfied with their current work.

Without other good jobs, workers may have sufficient reasons to leave.In addition, the employer's recruitment speed has also slowed down this year, which shows that employers are no longer so anxious to fill the vacancies. 

Resignation rate (dark blue) and employment rate (light blue)

Holiday recruitment slow

Although there are still a large number of job opportunities and more than the number of unemployed Americans, the gap between the two has narrowed.

Since the historical high in March 2022, the gap between these two major data has been decliningEssenceData from the US Department of Labor show that the number of vacant positions in business services, information and manufacturing has declined in the past year.

A sign of ominous,Enterprises said their demand for seasonal workers has decreased this fall.

Recruitment slow

As of October this year, employers have increased an average of 239,000 jobs per monthThis has slowed down by nearly 400,000 people per month in 2022 and a monthly increase of 600,000 people in 2021.Economist estimates from foreign media surveys,This cooling trend continues in November, and the number of employment will be increased by 190,000Essence

The Fed has pushed interest rates to a high point in 22 years to cope with inflation. This action slows down the real estate market and commercial investment, which has a follow -up impact on the labor market.But there are exceptions,Recruitment in the medical industry is booming.Government and leisure and hotel employers are also increasing employment opportunities at a stable rate.

U.S. non -agricultural employment trend

The salary increase is getting smaller and smaller

In recent years, when companies are urgently needed to recruit employees, it will provide employees with the largest salary increase in their careers.andAs the company seems to be less rushing to recruit now, wage growth has cooled.

However, the increase of wages is still higher than the historical level. This year's wages have increased more than price increases, and it has been behind the new crown epidemic recovery period.Slowing wage growth helps to suppress inflation, especially for labor -intensive service industries.

The level of hourly wage growth has fallen

Finding a job is getting more and more difficult

At present, more and more people are difficult to find a job after being fired.Data from the US Department of Labor show,In recent weeks, nearly 2 million Americans have continued to apply for unemployment benefits, which is the most in about two years.Although this level is still at a historical low, it has just approached the average level before the new crown epidemic.

same,The unemployment rate is still very lowEssenceEconomists predict that the unemployment rate will remain at 3.9%in November.But since this spring, it has risen by 0.5 percentage points.Such growth usually occurs before the economic recession.

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